Outlook 2026:
ETF portfolio ideas
Translating our 2026 convictions into potential ETF implementation ideas
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Keep it turning: a year of transition, not downturn
For sports fans, the Winter Olympics take place in Italy in February this year and the FIFA World Cup kicks off in the US, Canada and Mexico in the summer. It’s also a year marked by big anniversaries. In July, the US celebrates its 250th anniversary, while the 75th edition of the Nobel Peace Prize is in the diary in October.
Turning to the investment world, we believe there are six themes that are likely to shape global markets in the year ahead.1 Each could present investment opportunities, though these must be balanced against potential risks2.
These themes are: technology’s impact on global key players as it continues to transform everyday work and life; how bonds behave in the new global policy order; Europe’s shift towards renewed self-reliance on industrialisation and defence; the role of emerging markets (EM) in the global economy; the growth of sustainable energy with this increased technology developments; and, the uncertainty caused by trade frictions and other variables.
In this changing world of transition – with growth proving resilient but fragile – a diversified3, dynamic asset allocation could be considered to help unlock potential opportunity.
Implementation ideas
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Thinking global: equities beyond the tech race
Silicon Valley tech companies have been drivers of growth both in the US and beyond. But now these stocks look relatively expensive and broader US stock indices are top heavy, which is to say that these large technology companies account for an outsize proportion of growth and market capitalisation4, bringing potential concentration risk5.
Although the US remains the current leader in tech, China has increased investment in the sector and more broadly Asia-based companies have become influential players. One need not look further than Taiwan as the world’s primary producer of semiconductors6, which are required to power rising demand for artificial intelligence (AI).
ETF implementation ideas
These trends point to a geographic dispersion in potential growth opportunities such as China tech for example, and the importance of select sectors like AI & robotics and semiconductors.
A world strategy remains a solid building block, to invest7 in companies listed all over the globe, while offering a degree of diversification3.
Bonds in the new policy order
Watching central banks’ policies8 remains important in the year ahead. The situation is complicated by divergences in future policy paths. In the US, inflation is likely to remain stickier than expected due to price pressure from tariffs and a weaker US dollar.
Other considerations in this new policy order include potential inflationary measures caused by longer-term investment in the green transition. Meanwhile, in the eurozone, the European Central Bank appears to be on track to meet its inflation target.
ETF implementation ideas
With the US and Europe on different paths, a nuanced approach to bond markets could be preferable. Looking at government bonds, Europe appears to be favourable over more volatile US Treasuries.
In corporate credit, high-quality EUR and US bonds could be options: they are supported by stronger company fundamentals and sound balance sheets9.
The European journey continues
Policy shifts are reshaping Europe as it seeks greater self-reliance amid a recalibration of the international order. The EU, along with other individual European countries such as the United Kingdom, have committed to boost spending in defence, infrastructure and industrials10 to move towards greater strategic autonomy, even if Europe enters 2026 with modest growth prospects.
Additionally, European stocks could be considered relatively cheap compared to the US11, and generate roughly two-thirds of their revenues domestically12, making them less exposed to US tariffs and other external shocks.
ETF implementation ideas
Taken together, these features and developments could create opportunities1 via a core pan-European index, in themes tied to strategic autonomy, and in sectors such as defence and industrials.
Shifting blocs in emerging markets
EM economic growth is expected to outpace developed markets in the months ahead13.
This so-called ‘growth premium’ is a factor that works in EM’s favour, which could be further boosted by a weaker US dollar. Broadly speaking, this could happen because when the US dollar is weak, many EM economies earn more from what they sell and find it easier to pay off dollar-denominated loans.
EM growth momentum is also driven by some deeper structural changes to the economy such as global supply chain reconfiguration and tech acceleration, in a context of a weaker US dollar. Major EM players such as China and India are key contributors to the EM opportunity set. In China, investment in AI has been significant, while efforts are under way to secure critical-mineral supply chains. India’s growth will be driven by domestic demand and ongoing reform momentum.
ETF implementation ideas
A broad approach to EM equities could be a way to capture growth potential1, while Asia remains a global engine of growth, making the case for a potential EM Asia strategy. Additionally, a more granular allocation to both Chinese and Indian equities could therefore be considered.
Powering sustainable growth
With a greater emphasis on strategic autonomy, countries are placing an increasing importance on improving energy capacity and resilience. Some of these efforts are extremely tech-driven, consisting of ensuring access to AI-driven digitalisation, smart grids, advanced cooling, data-centre expansion and so on.
All of this comes as electricity demand rises due to industrial-related demand, the scaling up of data centres, and growing electric vehicle adoption14.
ETF implementation ideas
Climate-aware government bond exposures, alongside equity strategies that capture global and European companies aligned with the energy transition and sustainable industrial growth, are more relevant than ever amid both rising energy demand and green energy policies15.
These could be accessed through broad ESG transition equity strategies or via a green-tilted government bond solution.
Diversifying3 in an era of controlled disorder
In an environment defined by geopolitical fragmentation, persistent vulnerabilities and divergences in inflation and trade friction, some cushioning in investment portfolios could prove useful.
The shift towards a more fragmented and contested global order is increasing the need to pair growth-oriented positions with resilience.
ETF implementation ideas
Commodities, gold-related strategies, in particular, along with listed real estate and select defensive equity sectors could offer resilience to portfolios.
Together, these areas offer diversification3 to potentially reinforce portfolios for a world where uncertainty is persistent but where opportunities continue to emerge.
Information on Amundi’s responsible investing can be found on amundietf.com and amundi.com. The investment decision must take into account all the characteristics and objectives of the Fund, as described in the relevant Prospectus.
1.Source: Amundi Investment Institute, 2026 Investment Outlook, as at 19 November 2025.
2. Investment involves risks. For more information, please refer to the Risk section below
3. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss
4. Source: S&P Global - The Magnificent Seven tech stocks represent 35% market cap of the S&P 500 index as at December 2025
5. This is the risk of losses on a single large investment in a particular market
6. Source: Bloomberg - AI Chip Boom Fuels Taiwan’s Fastest Export Gain in 15 Years, 7 November 2025
7.Investment involves risks. For more information, please refer to the Risk section below.
8. Central banks set policy rates (or interest rates) to manage inflation, among other things.
9. Fundamentals include metrics related to a company’s financial health such as profits, revenues, debt, liabilities and so on.
10. Sources: European commission. https://commission.Europa.eu/topics/defence/future-European-defence_en, https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/priorities-2019-2024/europe-fit-digital-age/european-chips-act_en, and https://commission.europa.eu/funding-tenders/find-funding/eu-funding-programmes/eu4health_en
11. Past performance does not predict future returns.
12. Sources: Amundi, Bloomberg as at end November 2025. Past market trends are not a reliable indicator of future ones.
13. Past market trends are not a reliable indicator of future ones.
14. Source: Amundi Investment Institute, 2026 Investment Outlook, as at 19 November 2025.
15. Information on Amundi’s responsible investing can be found on amundietf.com and amundi.com. The investment decision must take into account all the characteristics and objectives of the Fund, as described in the relevant Prospectus.
KNOWING YOUR RISK
It is important for potential investors to evaluate the risks described below and in the fund’s Key Information Document (“KID”) and prospectus available on our website www.amundietf.com.
CAPITAL AT RISK - ETFs are tracking instruments. Their risk profile is similar to a direct investment in the underlying index securities. Investors’ capital is fully at risk and investors may not get back the amount originally invested.
UNDERLYING RISK - The underlying index securities of an ETF may be complex and volatile. For example, ETFs exposed to Emerging Markets carry a greater risk of potential loss than investment in Developed Markets as they are exposed to a wide range of unpredictable Emerging Market risks.
REPLICATION RISK - The fund’s objectives might not be reached due to unexpected events on the underlying markets which will impact the index calculation and the efficient fund replication.
COUNTERPARTY RISK - Investors are exposed to risks resulting from the use of an OTC swap (over-the-counter) or securities lending with the respective counterparty(-ies). Counterparty(-ies) are credit institution(s) whose name(s) can be found on the fund’s website amundietf.com. In line with the UCITS guidelines, the exposure to the counterparty cannot exceed 10% of the total assets of the fund.
CURRENCY RISK – An ETF may be exposed to currency risk if the ETF is denominated in a currency different to that of the underlying index securities it is tracking. This means that exchange rate fluctuations could have a negative or positive effect on returns.
LIQUIDITY RISK – There is a risk associated with the markets to which the ETF is exposed. The price and the value of investments are linked to the liquidity risk of the underlying index securities. Investments can go up or down. In addition, on the secondary market liquidity is provided by sregistered market makers on the respective stock exchange where the ETF is listed. On exchange, liquidity may be limited as a result of a suspension in the underlying market represented by the underlying index tracked by the ETF; a failure in the systems of one of the relevant stock exchanges, or other market-maker systems; or an abnormal trading situation or event.
VOLATILITY RISK – The ETF is exposed to changes in the volatility patterns of the underlying index relevant markets. The ETF value can change rapidly and unpredictably, and potentially move in a large magnitude, up or down.
CONCENTRATION RISK –ETFs can select a large portion of their assets in a particular issuer, industry, stocks or type of bonds, country or region for their portfolio from the original benchmark index. Where selection rules are extensive, it can lead to a more concentrated portfolio where risk is spread over fewer stocks. This can mean both higher volatility and a greater risk of loss.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION
This is a promotional and non-contractual information which should not be regarded as an investment advice or an investment recommendation, a solicitation of an investment, an offer or a purchase, from Amundi Asset Management (“Amundi”) nor any of its subsidiaries.
This document was not reviewed, stamped or approved by any financial authority.
This material is based on sources that Amundi and/or any of her subsidiaries consider to be reliable at the time of publication. Data, opinions and analysis may be changed without notice. Amundi and/or any of her subsidiaries accept no liability whatsoever, whether direct or indirect, that may arise from the use of information contained in this material. Amundi and/or any of her subsidiaries can in no way be held responsible for any decision or investment made on the basis of information contained in this material.
Information reputed exact as of 12 December 2025.
Reproduction prohibited without the written consent of Amundi.